ENWO - European Numerical Weather Outlooks

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In each time step we filter a particular parameter to areas where the model produces convective precipitation (with a rate of at least 0.25 mm/hour). Then, we aggregate all time steps in 24-hour intervals (from 0600 to 0600 UTC) by choosing a maximum or minimum values of the selected parameters (previously filtered with convective precipitaion). We perform such filtering to focus on the areas where the convective initiation is expected by the model. Below, we present an example, how the SB CAPE parameter is filtered by convective precipitation and aggregated into 5h composite map.

In our operational maps we do the same but for 24-hour periods. We use 0600 to 0600 UTC time interval due to this timeframe being most often used as a convective forecast period by the European institutions (including ESTOFEX). Our maps base on highlighting the most important ingredients conducive for severe thunderstorms. However, we compute also a few composite parameters aimed to highlight threat for particular severe weather phenomena. Among them we can list:

An example of 24-hour forecast from 6 February 06 UTC to 7 February 06UTC with Lightning Potential Index (left figure) and lightning detected by the blizortung network in the same period (right figure).